Thinking of Poker as a Scientific Study
Wednesday, February 24th, 2010In scientific studies, when a scientist wants to test a theory, they set up variables. There is an independent variable, and a dependent variable. The dependent variable relies on the independent variable, and the results are what come of the interaction between the two.
An example: boiling liquids. Water is known to have a distinct boiling point. That boiling point is a set temperature that doesn’t change. What we can change though is the type of liquid. Thus, the independent variable is the temperature at which water boils. The dependent variable is whether or not other liquids boil at this temperature. To test the theory, we place oil into a vat and let it heat to the boiling point of water. If it doesn’t boil, we can assess that oil has a higher boiling point than does water.
Now let’s apply this to poker. When in a game of online poker, there are independent variables of immense proportions. Stack sizes are independent variables, as are actions, raises, folds, calls, reraises. The dependent variable here is your reaction to the actions of the independent variables. So if a rock opens under the gun, your response depends on how you perceive this variable. A good theory to make is to fold here if you know the player is a rock, and his action (independent variable) is raising under the gun. Your dependent action should be to fold with a weak hand.
And you can take this as deep as you are comfortable with. But there is one thing to always remember if you choose to look at poker online as a scientific scenario. The independent variables are just that, independent. That means we can’t control them. How they behave, though, can change the way we think about the situation and thus reinforce or shape our actions. In essence, they can shape the way we see the game, and how we play it.